2021 CFB Preview

SEC

SEC West

1. Texas A&M- Jimbo’s best A&M team to date was last year, in which they almost made the CFP and their only loss was Alabama. For me, this team might be better. Mond was great, but this is Jimbo’s first “guy” at QB in redshirt freshman Hayes King. This year could be the window that Jimbo has to beat Alabama, and I like his chances of doing it. The out of conference schedule isn’t bad, but they just need to take care of business in the SEC otherwise and I think A&M can win the SEC. Win Total:9.5- Over

2. Alabama- Another year, another reload for Nick Saban at Alabama. The offense will be down from last year, losing multiple first round picks and OC Steve Sarkisian to Texas, but it should be the best defense Saban has had in a few years. They, per usual, should be in the mix for the CFP. The big game will be at Texas A&M, which should decide a lot of the CFB landscape this year. Win Total:11.5- Under

3. LSU- Coming off of a 2019 National title, LSU disappointed in 2020, going 5-5. I think they improve greatly and should be favored in most games. Win Total:8.5- Over

4. Ole Miss- Year two of Lane Kiffin and the offense should still be as potent as possible. The defense needs to improve if they want to be an elite team. They should improve the win total and I like this team to give a challenge to the top teams they have on the schedule. Win Total:7.5- Over

5. Auburn- Year one of Bryan Harsin, the former Boise State head coach. He’s got plenty of talent, but an absolute war of a schedule. I like Harsin, I’m just not sure how he will adjust to the SEC. Win Total:7- Under

6. Arkansas- Another year, another year of Arkansas having arguably the toughest schedule in the country. HC Sam Pittman surprised me and many others with his first season. I think their win total will not be accurate of how good this team is. Going to need a few upsets to make a bowl. Win total:6- Under

7. Mississippi State- Mike Leach in year one started off with a bang with the win at LSU but had a ton of turmoil at the end of the year. With a full offseason, they should be better on both sides of the ball. I think they have a really tough non-conference however with NCSTATE and Memphis on the schedule. They should be hovering around a bowl game. Win Total:6- Under

SEC East

1. Georgia- Georgia has another elite, playoff caliber team. JT Daniels at QB is a difference maker and could lead them to a playoff berth. Clemson week one is tough, but they avoid Bama and A&M from the other division and should take care of business and win the division. Win Total:10.5- Over

2. Kentucky- Kentucky had one of the toughest schedules in the country last year, and it gets significantly easier on paper this year. Stoops is one of the better coaches in the country and I think they are certainly a bowl team, but it can be an elite team if Will Levis can lead them. Win Total:7- Over

3. Florida- Dan Mullen has UF into a perennial contender in the SEC. This year, they should still be successful, but a tough schedule along with big time talent loss on offense has me doubtful on being a top team in the SEC. Win Total:9- Under

4. Missouri- I really like HC Eliah Drinkwitz and redshirt freshman QB Connor Bazelak. They went 5-5 and pulled a few upsets last season. They should be a bowl caliber team and could give the class of the conference some trouble. Win Total:7- Under (I really think they win 7 games)

5. South Carolina- Shane Beamer’s first year as HC appear to be rough. The roster is not completely stripped, but a tough schedule along with an adjustment period for an inexperienced coaching staff is going make a bowl game appearance in year one virtually impossible. Win Total:3.5- Over

6. Tennessee- A big time rebuild year is in effect for Tennessee and first year HC Josh Heupel. They lost plenty to the transfer portal and are one of the least experienced teams in the country. The schedule isn’t brutal, but I don’t think they get to a bowl game in year one. Win total:6- Under

7. Vanderbilt- Clark Lea is going to have an uphill battle trying to rebuild Vanderbilt. I would be surprised if they win more than 1 SEC game this year. Win Total:3- Under

Big Ten

Big Ten East

1. Ohio State- Even with the losses on both sides of the ball, Ohio State is still very much in the national championship conversation. The schedule isn’t easy, starting on the road in the big ten and then home against Oregon for freshman QB CJ Stroud, but they should roll through the big ten. Win Total:11- They win exactly 11 (regular season)

2. Indiana- Coming off of a breakout year under HC Tom Allen, IU looks to keep the momentum going. Schedule isn’t easy, but there is still lots of talent back. The big question is how does starting QB Michael Penix bounce back from his ACL injury? They could be at double digit wins if all goes right. Win Total:8- Over

3. Penn State- Penn State had a horrendous 2020, but with returning talent, they expect to be one of the most improved teams in the country and be right around the double digit win mark. However, their schedule is a gauntlet, including draws of at Iowa and at Wisconsin from the west. Sean Clifford needs to take the next step in order for Penn State to eclipse double digit wins. Win Total:9- Under (I hate this pick)

4. Michigan- Michigan is another team that had a somewhat unexpected, awful 2020 season. I think they bounce back, but their schedule does them no favors. If 2021 is similar to last year, Harbaugh could be gone. Win Total:7.5- Under

5. Rutgers- Greg Schiano showed up at Rutgers and had them playing some actually good football. They return almost every starter along with a full offseason, they should be in a bowl. But the schedule is tough so they will be hovering around a bowl game. Win Total:4.5- Over

6. Maryland- Maryland has built a pretty solid roster, but a tough schedule makes them dogs in probably 9 of their 12 games. They could compete for a bowl, but it could be an uphill battle. Win Total:6- Under

7. Michigan State- With how late Mel Tucker was hired, 2020 was honestly better than some expected. This is essentially year 1 and it is likely a rebuild year. Would be surprised if they make a bowl game. Win Total:4.5- Under

Big Ten West

1. Wisconsin- Wisconsin is looking like the top team in the west once again. Behind a veteran o-line, the run game should be much better and if Mertz takes a step up, then the offense could be elite. The defense will be in contention for the best in the big ten. Their schedule is tough, but there is a chance they are favored in every game. I think Wisconsin can challenge OSU for the Big Ten title if they can take care of business in their own division. Win Total:9.5- Over

2. Iowa- Iowa quietly had an excellent 2020. They should carry over that success but their schedule doesn’t make it easy on them to compete for a division title. Win Total:8.5- Over

3. Northwestern- Northwestern had an incredible 2020, and they coach Fitzgerald believes despite the low amount of returning starters, they can reload and compete. I really like SC transfer Ryan Hilinski at QB, and the schedule is favorable for Northwestern. They certainly should be a bowl game berth, could compete for the division title if all goes right. Win Total:6- Over

4. Minnesota- Minnesota should rebound from a disappointing 2020 season. They bring back most starters but a tough schedule makes them a bowl team but not a whole lot more. Maybe they surprise like 2019 again, but I doubt it. Win Total:7- 7-5. 100%

5. Purdue- Purdue seemed to be on the upswing but has almost plateaued, making this a crucial year for Jeff Brohm. WR David Bell and DE George Karlaftis are two of the most talented players in the big ten. They should compete for a bowl, although I’m not sure they get there. Win Total:5- Under

6. Illinois- I love the Bielema hire for Illinois. They should be a perennial bowl team soon, but I doubt year one is the year. The roster has some talent and depth, but a tough schedule requires them to pull a few upsets to get to a bowl. Win Total:3.5- Over

7. Nebraska- Scott Frost has yet to make a bowl game as the Cornhuskers’ head coach, and I’m not sure that they can finally get there this year. They have an uphill battle to get to six games, including games at Oklahoma and Wisconsin, along with games against Iowa and Ohio State. I think they flirt with 6 but ultimately, I think they fall short. Win Total:6- Under

Big 12

1. Iowa State- What a job Matt Campbell has done. He has turned ISU into a national title contender. I seriously believe in this team. They have to take care of business against the inferior foes in the Big 12 and the big test will be Oklahoma. I think they get it done though! Win Total:9.5- Over

2. Oklahoma- This could be Oklahoma’s best team under Lincoln Riley. They should take care of business until the end of the year, when they go Iowa State/OKST back to back. They will be competing for the CFP once again this year. Win Total:11- Push. They go 11-1

3. TCU- TCU appears to be gearing up for a big season as long as injuries don’t get to them like they have the last few years. They get some of the best teams on the road, but they should still be very competitive in the big 12. Win Total:7.5- Over

4. Oklahoma State- Per usual, OKST should still be a big 12 contender. The defense should actually be the strength this year, but they will likely be middle of the pack, but they will hang with everyone. Win Total:7.5- Over

5. Texas- Year one of Steve Sarkisian should be an interesting one. He takes over a very talented one, although a freshman will be starting at QB. They are a tier below the class of the conference, but still should have a successful season. Win Total:8- Under? I like 8-4

6. Kansas State- Only 4-6 last year but KSTATE brings a lot back, including a great QB/RB tandem. I like them more than some, and I think they get to a bowl this year. Win Total:5.5- Over

7. West Virginia- West Virginia appears to be ready for another bowl eligible season under Neal Brown. They should be there, but the question is can they get into the top tier of the big 12 any time soon? Win Total:6.5- Under

8. Texas Tech- Texas Tech’s HC Matt Wells is still looking for his first bowl game going into his 3rd year as HC. They bring in former Oregon QB Tyler Shough to start. They should be hovering around 500 and might need an upset or two to make a bowl. Win Total:4.5- Over

9. Baylor- Baylor should be much improved in year two under Dave Aranda. They should compete for a bowl, but they will need a few upsets if they want to be bowl eligible. Win Total:5.5- Under

10. Kansas- Oof, this is rough. I like Lance Leipold and I think this is a great hire, but the success won’t be all the way in year one, especially considering how late in the process he was hired. One of the biggest rebuilds in the entire country. Win Total:1-Over, although I really think 1-11 is right where they will be.

ACC

ACC Atlantic

1. Clemson- Clemson is still miles better than the rest of the ACC, so the ACC title should still be in the cards. Georgia in week one is almost guaranteed to be their toughest game. The offense isn’t bringing back a lot of returning production but QB DJ Uigalelei and WR Justyn Ross returning from injury should make for a dynamic combo offensively. As for the defense, this could be their best in a few years. 9 starters are back and particularly the defensive line is scary good, talent and depth wise. Win Total:11.5- Under

2. NC State- NC State had a very good year last year, and they are returning almost everyone, making for a potentially very fun season. They grab UNC and Miami out of the Coastal unfortunately, but they could potentially be favored in both of those games if things go their way. They could push for a double digit win season. Win Total:6.5- Over

3. Boston College- BC impressed me a lot last year, and I think they will be even better this year. A very manageable schedule combined with a lot of returning talent makes me believe that this is certainly a bowl team, and they could push to double digit if everything goes right. Win Total:7- Over

4. Wake Forest- Wake has been a model of consistency, consistently being in a bowl, and I think it continues with potentially even more success this year. They bring back almost everyone on both sides of the ball, and they could be 8-0 going into their game at UNC if all goes right. I’m not sold that happens, but this is certainly a bowl-eligible team. Win Total:6.5- Over

5. Florida State- I think year 0 of Mike Norvell went about expected minus an absurd upset against UNC. I believe in Norvell, but this schedule does them 0 favors. I think they will have their best season since 2017, but getting ND, UNC, and UF along with an improved ACC Atlantic makes them not much more than a bowl team, and that’s if things go right. Will need an upset probably in order to make a bowl, but I think they do it. Win Total:5.5- Over

6. Louisville- Louisville is a talented team, but not bringing that much returning production back along with a tough Atlantic this year doesn’t bode well for bowl chances. I think they will hover around 500 but I’m not sure they get there. Win Total:7- Under

7. Syracuse- This team should be a lot better than the horrendous team the 2020 season produced. But the record might not show that as their non-conference is sneaky tough, especially for a team that only won one game a year ago. Win Total:3- Under

ACC Coastal

1. North Carolina- UNC’s offense won’t be as potent as last year, but their defense should be really good. They avoid Clemson, but they go at Notre Dame. I think this is likely the best team in the coastal, but it could be a very competitive division and their week one game at VT could be very important. Win Total:10- Push

2. Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh is interesting because they have an experienced and potentially potent offense, but I’m just not sure if they get over the hump and become a contender in the coastal. They also unfortunately get Clemson from the Atlantic. I think they are comfortably in a bowl game, but I just don’t know how much more they get done, but if all goes right, they could win the division. Win Total:7- Over

3. Miami- I think Miami’s season is very dependent on how D’eriq King comes back from his ACL injury. They have to face Alabama to open, but their big game will be when they go to Chapel Hill on October 16th. I’m not sold on them like others, but they should compete for the Coastal crown. Win Total:9.5- Under

4. Virginia Tech- Virginia Tech gets a fairly reasonable schedule, but QB play and an improved defense must happen and get better for the team to be in the division title contention. Honestly, I think they could compete for the title. Their home game against UNC to open the year on Friday night could really set the tone for the year. Win Total:7-Over

5. Virginia- UVA and Bronco Mendenhall shouldn’t ever be counted out of the always open ACC Coastal race, but I’m not sure this is their year. I think they probably get to a bowl game, but I don’t think they get much more. Win Total:6- Push, they go 6-6.

6. Georgia Tech- I really like Geoff Collins and how he is building this team up. Unfortunately, they once again have a brutal schedule. I think they will continue to improve and play well, but I’m not sure they can make a bowl game with this schedule. Win Total:5- Under

7. Duke- Duke has the least amount of returning starters in the ACCand they are coming off another poor season. I hate to say this, but David Cutcliffe’s time as the HC might be dwindling. I would be shocked if they get to a bowl game this year and I think they seriously struggle in ACC play. Win Total:3.5- Under

Pac-12

Pac-12 North

1. Washington- This is one of my favorite sleeper teams on the year. With a deep backfield along with an experienced, elite offensive line they are making things easy for redshirt freshman Dylan Morris, who was mostly just a game manager, a good one albeit, and he should be able to game manage to a lot of wins. Their defense should be the best in the pac-12 bringing 10 starters back and still having their patented elite secondary. A game against Michigan in week one is going to be a big one, and they still have Oregon on the schedule, but this is a legit team who could very well be in the double digit win column. Win Total:9- Over

2. Oregon- Oregon’s talent level is getting to playoff-caliber, and this could be their year. They get a lot of their better opponents on the road, including Ohio State. I really like both sides of the ball, but I think the schedule is too tough for them to dominate the Pac this year, not to mention the curse of the pac-12 cannibalizing itself. Win Total:9- Over

3. Stanford- Stanford was pretty good last year coming off of a poor 2019, and they are going to grind out wins this year in order to compete in the north. I like them being a bowl team and one of the better teams in the conference. Unfortunately, the schedule is brutal. Win Total:4- Over

4. Washington State- With a favorable schedule and a full offseason, Nick Rolovich should be leading a rebound year for WSU. The schedule isn’t bad, and I think they should be a bowl team this year. Win Total:6- Push, 6-6.

5. California- I feel I have been waiting for Cal to have a big year under Justin Wilcox for a few years now. I’m not sure this is a bowl team with this schedule. Win Total:6- Under

6. Oregon State- The rebuild continues. I think OSU is getting better, but a pretty tough schedule doesn’t make me think that they can make a bowl game. Win Total:4.5- Under

Pac-12 South

1. USC- USC is on paper one of the best teams in the Pac-12. I think this is the test for Clay Helton, if this team struggles, he should really be on the hot seat/fired. But, I think this team succeeds lead by QB Kedon Slovis and I think they win around 10 games. Win Total:8.5- Over

2. Utah- Utah is deep and very experienced everywhere, which seems like a recipe for success for Kyle Whittingham. I like transfer QB Charlie Brewer from Baylor. Outside of getting Oregon, Utah has a very favorable schedule. This could be a double digit win team. Win Total:8.5- Over

3. Arizona State- Herm Edwards and ASU are looking to have a really successful year with QB Jayden Daniels in his 3rd year. Some like this team to get to double digit wins, but I think the schedule is too tough for that. I like them a lot though, and I think they can compete for a division title this year. Win Total:9- Under

4. UCLA- Year 4 of Chip Kelly looks to be the year they can finally make a bowl game. Unfortunately, they have a very tough schedule and doesn’t look to be much more than six wins, if they even get there. They should be right around 500. Win Total:7- Under

5. Colorado- The Buffaloes shocked in Karl Dorrell’s first season last year. This team could honestly be better than last year, but compared to their easy schedule, they have a gauntlet this year. Their chances at a bowl game are dependent on if they can pull an upset or two. Win Total:4.5- Under

6. Arizona- Year one of Jedd Fisch should be a big time rebuilding year. I would be surprised if they win more than 1 pac-12 game this year. Win Total:2.5- Over

Top Non-P5 Teams (No particular order)

Notre Dame- Notre Dame is losing a lot of talent, but still has plenty on the roster to be a great team. I don’t like Jack Coan, but I think he can manage this team to a potential double digit season. Their schedule is tough though. I think this team could be favored in all 12 games, but I think 9 or 10 wins is right around where they will be at. Win Total:9- Push/Over

Cincinnati- Led by Luke Fickell, this Cincinnati team is turning into the top non-P5 team to be. The schedule gets tougher this year, but a double digit season is still in play. QB Desmond Ridder and a stout defense gives them a chance in every game. Win Total:10- Push, 10-2

Coastal Carolina- Coastal brings almost everyone, and they have one of the easiest schedules in the country. I think they should be a double digit win team again. Win Total:10- Over

Liberty- This team was incredible last year behind dynamic QB Malik Willis, and they bring pretty much everyone back. Schedule is certainly manageable for a double digit win season, with at Ole Miss and Louisiana the two biggest games on the schedule. Win Total:9- Over

Louisiana- Louisiana loses their two best backs, but they bring back essentially everyone else. Tough start at Texas but should be close or above 10 wins again. Win Total:9.5- Over

UCF- Gus Malzahn comes into a great situation with UCF, coming off a down year by their standards but has loads of talent, and I think they gear up for a 10 win season. A couple tough road games could put that into question, but I think they get there. Win Total:9.5- Over

UAB- UAB is still continuing a great stretch of seasons under Bill Clark. They should continue and have a great season, although I’m not sure if they get to 10 wins. Win Total:7.5- Over

Nevada- They had a great year, and they are bringing a lot back, but a tough schedule could keep them from putting up big time win numbers. Still looking like they will win their division. Win Total:7.5- Over

Appalachian State- App State has a tough schedule but should still be strong and be one of the best of the #FunBelt. Win Total:9- Over

Wyoming- This team is coming off of a tough year, but an easy schedule gives them an outside shot at the division title. Win Total:8- Over

Boise State- In Andy Avalos first year, he inherits plenty of talent, and a tough, but manageable schedule. I think they can get close to 10 wins but I’m not sure they get there. Win Total:9- Push. 9-3

SMU- SMU has the potential for another great season under Sonny Dykes. I think they are a step below UCF and Cincinnati, but they can hang with anyone else. Win Total:6- Over

My Fun CFP

1. Texas A&M

2. Iowa State

3. Washington

4. Wisconsin

This is feasible that none or only one of these teams makes the playoff, but this would be so fun if it steers away from the norm.

My top Heisman Contenders

1. Kedon Slovis, USC

2. Sam Howell, UNC

3. JT Daniels, UGA

3 Non-QB Longshots

1. Breece Hall, RB, ISU

2. Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon

3. Kyren Williams, RB, Notre Dame